The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is forecasting a more favorable fall outlook when it comes to COVID-19 than what happened a year ago when the virus surged across the US.
In its brand-new outlook, the CDC projected how many new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations can be expected both nationally and by state.
As of Monday, Sept. 27, national forecasts predict that there will be between 190,000 and 1.05 million new COVID-19 cases reported during the week ending on Saturday, Oct. 23, with the national death toll between 724,000 and 753,000.
The forecast also calls for a fluctuating number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized with the virus in the US, with between 3,000 and nearly 11,000 hospitalized predicted to be reported as of Monday, Oct. 25.
The state- and territory-level forecasts predict that over the next four weeks, the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will likely decrease in 22 jurisdictions. Over that same time frame, death rates are expected to increase in one state and decrease in eight, while the rest will maintain relatively consistent.
The forecasted drop in COVID-19 fatalities is the first time that has happened since June.
In Massachusetts, the CDC is projecting a modest downtick in new cases, patients hospitalized with the virus, and a mild uptick in COVID-19-related deaths over the next several weeks.
The ensemble forecasts of newly reported deaths came from 26 modeling groups, while hospitalizations were taken from nine modeling groups.
“Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast,” according to the CDC. “They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, but even the ensemble forecasts do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
“They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.”